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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still