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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.