Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
